The recent struggles of Aryna Sabalenka have tennis fans and pundits alike scratching their heads. The world number one, who dominated the hard courts earlier this year, has seemingly hit a wall, with a string of early exits from major tournaments. What's more, her coach, Rennae Stubbs, has raised concerns about her confidence and form ahead of the US Open. So, what's going wrong for Sabalenka, and can she turn things around in time for the final Grand Slam of the year?
The Sunshine Double and Beyond
Sabalenka's 2026 record as she won the Sunshine Double (23-1)
Tournament Performance Match wins Defeat
Brisbane International Champion 5 (Cristina Bucsa, Sorana Cirstea, Madison Keys, Karolina Muchova, Marta Kostyuk)
Australian Open Final 6 (Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah, Zhuoxan Bai, Anastasia Potapova, Victoria Mboko, Iva Jovic, Elina Svitolina) Elena Rybakina
Indian Wells Champion 6 (Himeno Sakatsume, Jaqueline Cristian, Naomi Osaka, Victoria Mboko, Linda Noskova, Elena Rybakina)
Miami Open Champion 6 (Ann Li, Caty McNally, Qinwen Zheng, Hailey Baptiste, Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff)
Sabalenka was undoubtedly the best hard-court player on the planet, but things soon unravelled as she changed surfaces. The 28-year-old went 8-3 on clay and 5-2 on grass before losing early on her return to hard courts in Canada.
The Slump
Aryna Sabalenka’s 2026 record post-Sunshine Double (15-6)
Tournament Performance Match wins Defeat
Madrid Open Quarter-final 3 (Peyton Stearns, Jaqueline Cristian, Naomi Osaka) Hailey Baptiste
Italian Open Third round 1 (Barbora Krejcikova) Sorana Cirstea
French Open Quarter-final 4 (Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, Elsa Jacquemot, Daria Kasatkina, Naomi Osaka) Diana Shnaider
Berlin Open Semi-final 2 (Ekaterina Alexandrova, Nikola Bartunkova) Jessica Pegula
Wimbledon Fourth round 3 (Teodora Kostovic, McCartney Kessler, Jelena Ostapenko) Naomi Osaka
Canadian Open Fourth round 2 (Moyuka Uchijima, Zhang Shuai) Ekaterina Alexandrova
Having looked so dominant when she completed the Sunshine Double in March, Sabalenka has only won 71% of her matches since. This is a stark contrast to her earlier form, and it's left many wondering what's going on.
The Coach's Concerns
Rennae Stubbs, Serena Williams' coach, has delivered her verdict on Sabalenka's poor form. She says that Sabalenka's latest defeat is 'a major concern' confidence-wise ahead of the US Open. Stubbs notes that Sabalenka is not winning the matches she was winning last year, and she's not chipping away at her confidence. Instead, it's starting to get worse for her because now she's losing matches that she was not losing last year.
The Question Marks
There are a lot of question marks surrounding Sabalenka's form. Cincinnati has always been the precursor for who is playing the best on hard courts going into the US Open, as the conditions and courts are so similar to the US Open. So, this is a major concern for her coaching camp and for her, and for her confidence going into these last two really big tournaments of the year other than the WTA Finals.
The Road Ahead
If Sabalenka is to win the Cincinnati Open or defend her US Open title, she will need to recover the level she showed earlier this year. Next up for Sabalenka is a trip to Ohio for the Cincinnati Open. As the top seed, she will receive a bye into the second round, where she will play either a qualifier or Australia’s Talia Gibson.
Looking further ahead, Sabalenka could play Donna Vekic in the third round and may have a chance to exact revenge on Alexandrova in the last 16. Then, in the quarter-finals, she could play Elina Svitolina or the in-form Naomi Osaka, who recently knocked her out of Wimbledon. And the usual suspects, Coco Gauff, Mirra Andreeva, Jessica Pegula, Iga Swiatek, and Elena Rybakina, could then await her in the semi-finals or the final.
Sabalenka won’t want to get ahead of herself, though, especially given her recent string of 'early' exits. The world number one will play her second-round match on Saturday, August 15, or Sunday, August 16.
The Takeaway
Sabalenka's recent struggles have raised concerns about her form and confidence. While her coach, Rennae Stubbs, has expressed her worries, Sabalenka has the talent and the experience to turn things around. It remains to be seen if she can recover her form in time for the US Open, but one thing is certain: this is a major concern for her and her team.
Personally, I think that Sabalenka's struggles are a fascinating insight into the pressures and challenges faced by top athletes. It's a reminder that even the best performers can hit a slump, and it's up to them to find the strength and resilience to come back stronger. What makes this particularly fascinating is the question of whether Sabalenka can overcome her current form and reclaim her place at the top of the game. In my opinion, this is a crucial test of her mental fortitude and determination, and it will be interesting to see how she responds.
